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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|